The Laws Have Changed

A New York Times Sunday Magazine piece on Mark Warner ("The Fallback") is worth a look, not because of what it reveals about Warner (which isn't much), but because of what it suggests about Democratic strategy in the 2008 race. Apparently, Hillary's status as the presumed nominee is well-entrenched, such that she has a lot of the party infrastructure and a lot of the money locked up.

So formidable are the obstacles to challenging Clinton that even a lot of party operatives who don't think she's the best candidate are likely to work for her, just to be on the winning side. And this is precisely the strategy that her team has thus far cultivated. Just as Karl Rove set out to make George W. Bush's nomination seem inevitable in 2000, successfully freezing much of the money and talent that might have flowed to his competitors, so, too, do Clinton's advisers seem to be sending out signals that resistance is not only futile but also dangerous.

It seems to me that a Clinton II nomination would falter much like John Kerry's did -- since 51% of the country (based on polling) has already declared they would "definitely not" vote for her. Also, I'd like to have a non-legacy president follow Bush, even if a seasoned politician like Hillary might clean up the mess faster. Warner seems to be positioning himself (or, um, being positioned by handlers) as the candidate you go to when you realize Clinton won't work -- kind of like the Dean-Kerry progression last time around.

What I get from the profile of Warner is that, whatever he may have done for the state of Virginia, he's not the fighter we're going to need. He's a centrist and a friend to corporations, which fans of Clinton may like, but he doesn't have much foreign policy experience and seems kind of unenthusiastic about addressing the war issue. Worst of his faults, I think, is a reluctance to speak out against Bush and his neo-cons. Compromise and big-tent building is a selling point for governors, probably rightly so, but I don't think America really wants a compromiser in the White House. Bai also says that Warner is not exactly lighting any candles in the Netroots/Moveon blogosphere, which is where a lot of new heat and new money is coming from.

Plus, he looks like California's current governor. And Massachusetts'. I get confused.

If nothing else, Bai's article has made me excited again for John Edwards. I want someone who can turn outrage into enthusiasm, which Edwards or Obama (and, I hope to discover, Russ Feingold) can do. Here's Bai on the new Edwards:

[P]erhaps the most viable candidate who is making a strong bid to inherit Dean's activist base is John Edwards, who now directs an antipoverty center at the University of North Carolina. In the last year, Edwards's support among the Netroots appears to have surged as he has explored the world of blogging and podcasting, renounced his initial support for the Iraq war, campaigned for hotel workers in a union drive and railed against what he calls the "phony" culture of Washington. When I sat with him in a Chapel Hill cafe in January, Edwards, appearing more relaxed and confident than he did at any time during the 2004 campaign, told me that he now understood that specific policies weren't nearly as important in modern presidential politics as telegraphing a sense of conviction.

Edwards 2008. Make it happen.

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Also, this weekend: Saw the New Pornographers and Belle and Sebastian at the Riverside. The Nupies were awesome, even minus Neko Case. They performed in a horizontal line at the front of the stage, as if presenting a unified front, and did most of my favorites: "The Laws Have Changed," "Only Divine Right," "Bleeding Heart Show," "Mass Romantic." My slow descent into alcoholism, it went something like these songs. Sometimes, I'd find myself pondering how six people could be doing eight separate things -- as if everyone was doing their own song that just happened to mesh at the downbeats and blend harmonically.

Belle and Sebastian? Capable. And lots of endurance, apparently.

I wish I could see Neko when she's here, but I'll be on a plane to Ireland...